Pantnagar Journal of Research

Abstract

This study examines the long-term trends in seasonal and annual rainfall, and temperature patterns across the Shipra River Basin in Madhya Pradesh, Central India, utilizing high-resolution gridded rainfall data spanning from 1901 to 2020 for rainfall and 1951 to 2020 for temperature. The primary aim was to evaluate changes in rainfall dynamics through the application of both parametric and non-parametric statistical tools, including the Mann-Kendall trend test, Sen’s Slope estimator. The findings revealed a positive trend in monsoon and annual rainfall at a rate of +1.12 mm/year and 1.06 mm/year, respectively. In contrast, pre-monsoon, post-monsoon, and winter rainfall exhibited statistically non-significant declining trends with rate of –0.020 mm/ year, –0.010 mm/year, and –0.030 mm/year, respectively. Temperature trend analysis (1951–2020) revealed statistically significant increases in annual maximum and minimum temperatures at rates of +0.006 ^°C/year and +0.006 ^°C/year, respectively. These findings highlight the emergence of hydroclimatic imbalance in the basin, necessitating the adoption of climate-resilient agricultural practices, sustainable water resource planning, and further integration of climate projection models for informed adaptation strategies.